几种电力负荷预测方法及其比较_吴熳红.pdfVIP

17 1 Vol17 No1 2004 2 GUANGDONG ELEC RIC POWER Feb2004 : 1007-290X( 2004)01-0017-05 吴熳红, 杨继旺 ( 广东省广电集团有限公司珠海供电分公司, 广东珠海519000) : 介绍了趋势分析法回归分析法指数平滑法单耗法灰色 型法负荷密度法和弹性系数法等电 力负荷预测的方法, 并以预测珠海市全社会年用电量为实例, 在适用条件数据形式计算难度和适用时间等 方面对这几种预测方法进行了分析比较得出结论: 回归分析法趋势分析法适用于大样本, 且过去现在 和未来发展 式均一致的预测, 灰色 型法适用于贫信息条件下的预测; 灰色系统理论采用生成数序列建 , 回归分析法趋势分析法采用原始数据建 , 指数平滑法是通过对原始数据进行指数加权组合直接预测未来值 的; 回归分析法和趋势分析法的计算相对简单; 单耗法指数平滑法灰色 型法较适宜近期预测, 回归法 趋势分析法和改进型灰色 型较适于中长期预测 : 规划; 电力负荷预测; 方法 : TM715 : B Analysis and comparison of several electric load forecasting methods WU Man-hong, YANG Ji- ang ( Zhuhai Po er Supply Branch, GPG, Zhuhai, Guangdong 519000, China) Abstract: Some methods f or electric load f orecasting such as trend analysis, regression analysis, exponent smoothing, per u- nit consumption, grey model, load density and elastic coefficient are introduced. With the load forecast of Zhuhai City as an example, the application condition, data format, calculation diff iculty and suitable term of these methods are analyzed and compared. It is concluded that regression analysis and trend analysis methods apply to f orecast based on large sample and a developing mode consistent in the past, at present and in the future, hile grey model method applies to forecast under poor inf ormation condition. Regression analysis and trend analysis methods use ra data and grey model method uses generation data sequence f or modeling; exponent smoothing method makes direct f orecast using exponential eighting array of ra da- ta. The calculation in regression analysis and trend analysis methods is easier. The methods of per unit consumption, expo- nent smoothing and grey model are fit f or short-term forecast, and the methods of regression