对我国经济增长方式转变的再探究——基于改进的STR+方法.pdfVIP

对我国经济增长方式转变的再探究 ——基于改进的STR方法∗ 彭宜钟 童健 (东北财经大学) 摘 要：我们采用改进的STR 模型对我国经济增长率序列进行了拟合（拟合效果接近 完美）。基于该模型，我们发现：（1）自建国以来，我国增长方式发生了显著的变化，但要 素投入的增长在绝大部分时间内都是我国经济增长的主要来源，这说明在绝大部分时期内我 国经济增长都表现出了粗放型特征；（2）除资本以外，其余生产要素的边际产量都呈现上升 趋势，这表明我国要素配置效率得到了持续的提升；（3）资本边际产量一直呈现下降趋势， 这说明我国经济增长长期依靠投资拉动，从而导致了投资过度；（4）改革开放和市场化改革 显著增强了我国经济增长的可持续性。最后，我们还对推动我国经济增长方式转变的内在动 因进行了分析揭示，并提出了具有针对性的政策建议。 关键词：中国增长方式转变 STR 边际产量 中国经济增长可持续性 中图分类号：F061.2 Re-study On Changes In The Pattern Of China’s Economic Growth Based On STR Model Abstract We fitted the time series of China’s economy growth with a modified STR model, which eventually generated a perfect performance. Based on such model, several discoveries have been revealed: (1) there have been significant changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth since 1953, which has mainly been fueled by the increases in production factors; (2) every production factor except capital has generated increasing marginal product, which indicates continuous efficiency improvement in the allocation of corresponding production factor; (3) the diminishing marginal product of capital implies the excessive use of capital; (4) the opening-up reform and market-oriented reform have enhanced the sustainability of China’s economic growth. And finally, we revealed some underlying factors which are inferred to have promoted the changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth and made some relevant suggestions. Key Words: changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth, STR, marginal product, sustainability of China’s economic growth JEL E23 ∗基金项目：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目《中国战略性新兴产业发展理论与政 策研究》（批准号：10JJD790013），辽宁省财政科研基金项目《支持辽宁战略性新兴产业发 展财政政策研究》（批准号： ）和辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目《辽宁省产业结 10B001 构优化战略研究》（批准号：L10A