2.1 argument-现象分析.doc

2.1 Argument-现象分析, 得出结论或提出建议--有这些现象, 通过分析,可以得出如此结论 005(市场分析) 5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper. Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis. 鉴于我国在未来20年中患某种形式关节炎的人数预计将从4千万上升至6千万，生产治疗关节炎药物的制药公司将获得巨大利润。很多分析家相信，生产最畅销关节炎药物Xenon的Becton Pharmaceuticals将会在十年后成为利润最高的制药公司。但Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了，到时其他公司将能够生产该药的廉价版。因此，十年后利润最高的公司更有可能是Perkins Pharmaceuticals，该公司生产一种叫做Xylan的新药，临床调查表明在患最严重关节炎的患者中10个有7个倾向于Xylan而不是Xenon。 1.首先，不能因为3年后药物的专利到期，别的厂就一定能够生产廉价版本的药物。可能继续，或者难以得到制作方法 2.临床调查不一定能够说明所有人都是如此，许多人根本不去医院，在家里购买治疗 3.其他因素：没有说明Xylan的详细信息，可能效果不一定好，或者专利期更短；也没有说明Perkins制药的具体情况，可能是个小公司，没有能力生产太多的药，甚至可能被Becton收购annex to… The arguer falsely assumes that a rise in the number of arthritis sufferers implies a rise in profitability for arthritis drug manufacturers, future competition may diminish the profit for each individual company. (I.E) ★★★ The expiration of the patent on Xenon does not necessarily lead to the decline in the profit of Becton, because Becton may have the advantage of market seniority. (I.E) ★★★★ The preference of particular patients does not indicate that Xylan is a more profitable drug, we do not know the manufacturing cost and sales price of Xylan. (adv:disa