基于跟驰理论对车辆尾撞事故的研究.docVIP

辽宁警察学院 本科毕业论文 基于跟驰理论对车辆尾撞事故的研究 论 文 作 者： 马牧亭 专业（方向）：刑事科学技术（道路交通安全方向） 年 级： 2010级 学 号： 103424102 指 导 教 师： 王德章教授 完 成 日 期： 2014年2月28日  中文摘要 本文基于跟驰理论展开对尾撞事故进行理论与实际研究，首先提出尾随车的加速度与相对速度成线性关系，与车速、反应时间及车头间距成非线性关系，在微观上尾撞事故的发生与这些因素密切相关；其次，基于交通流特性，提出尾撞事故的发生与交通量、车流密度、车速这些因素存在宏观可调控关系。通过描述当前的交通发展现状，并进行了实地数据调查后，从宏观交通流角度，微观驾驶员、车辆角度分析了尾撞事故成因。后文先从宏观交通流特性角度研究与尾撞事故的关系，并由实测数据推算出为避免尾撞事故发生的道路交通能力；后通过微观线性与非线性跟驰模型探讨与尾撞事故的关系，并以线性跟驰模型的稳定性入手对尾撞事故进行实际对比分析。最后分别从宏观管理与微观控制角度提出解决尾撞事故的对策。 关键词： 跟驰理论 交通流特性 尾撞事故 ABSTRACT In this paper, I do the theoretical and actual research on the vehicle rear end collision based on car following theory. First proposed that there is a linear relationship between the trailing vehicle acceleration and the relative velocity; there is a non-linear relationship between the trailing vehicle acceleration and the speed, reaction time and headway. At the micro, rear end collision is closely related to these factors. And proposed that the occurrence of the rear end collision can be macroscopically regulated by the traffic volume, density, speed based on traffic flow characteristics. Through the description of the current status of the development of traffic and the field investigation, I analyze the cause of the rear end collision from the angle of the traffic flow, driver, vehicle. And first, I study the relationship between the macroscopic traffic flow characteristics and rear end collision, and calculate the traffic capacity of roads to avoid the rear end collision from the measured data. Next, I explore the relationship between the micro linear and nonlinear car following model and rear end collision, and do the actual comparative analysis in rear end collision on the stability of linear car following model. Finally, I put forward some solutions, including the macro management and micro control, to solve the rear end collision. Key words: Car foll