农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望.pdfVIP

doi：10．11676／qxxb2O15．011 气象学报 农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望 王春 乙 张继权。 霍治 国 蔡菁菁 刘兴朋。 张 琪 WANGChunyi ZHANGJiquan。 HUOZhiguo CAIJingjing LIUXingpeng ZHANGQi。 1．中国气象科学研究院，北京 ，100081 2．东北师范大学环境学院／自然灾害研究所 ，长春 ，130024 1．ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences，Beijing100081，China 2．SchoolofEnvironment~NaturalDisasterResearchInstitute，NortheastNormalUniversity，Changchun130024，China 2014—05—12收稿 ，2014—12—10改回． 王春 乙，张继权 ，霍治 国，蔡菁菁，刘兴朋 ，张琪．2015．农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望．气象学报 ，73(1)：1-19 WangChunyi，ZhangJiquan，HuoZhiguo，CaiJingjing，LiuXingpeng，ZhangQi．2015．Prospectsandprogressesintheresearch ofriskassessmentofagro-meteorologicaldisasters．ActaM eteorologicaSinica，73(1)：1-19 Abstract Theresearchontheagro—meteorologicaldisasterrisk isahotspotofCatastrophology，aswellasapracticaltaskof urgentneedsbythegovernment．Thoughtheassessmentmethodsandtheoryofagro—meteorologicaldisasterriskadvancesrap— idly，asystematicallyreview stillremainsvacantinthisarea．InordertOhaveathoroughgraspofthecurrentresearchstatusof theagro—meteoro1ogicaldisasterriskassessment，wehavesummarizedandreviewedthepresentresearchachievementsbasedon therelevantliteraturesoftherecent30years，throughwhich，wepointedOUtsomeexistingshortcomingsandputforwardsev— eralresearchprospectsoftheagro—meteorologica1disasterriskassessmentinthefuture．Atthebeginning，wereviewedthere— searchhistoryoftheagro—meteorologicaldisasterriskassessment，andthenweelaboratedthemaincontentoftheagro—meteor— ologicaldisasterriskassessment，includingthehazardriskassessment，vulnerabilityassessment，disasterdamageassessment andcomprehensiveassessment，whichcouldoverallbesummedupintothreemethods：theevaluationbasedonindexes，evalua— tionbasedonsampledata，andthescenariosimulationassessmentmethod．Intheend，wediscussedshortcomingsexistingin thepresentresearchandthepossiblefutureresearchfieldsintheagro—meteorologica1disasterrisk．Thisstudywouldprovidea referenceforfutureagro—meteorologicaldisasterrisk