Asian Drivers and Poor Countries The Research Agenda.ppt

Asian Drivers and Poor Countries: The Research Agenda J?rg Mayer UNCTAD China and India: What’s in it for Africa? Paris, 16-17 March 2006 Some research issues The rise of the Asian drivers and the development of Africa’s terms of trade: who benefits? The strong impact of the Asian drivers on world trade in primary commodities and clothing: will it last? What policy measures can maximize Africa’s benefits from the rise of the Asian drivers? The Asian drivers’ impact on world trade of primary commodities: will it last? (1/3) The causal relationship between changes in the size and pattern of world primary commodity trade and the rise of the Asian drivers is well established: will it last? Agriculture (future evolution very uncertain): Even small changes in China’s food self-sufficiency ratios strongly affect its agricultural trade balance; But how will the new emphasis on rural development affect productivity in agriculture? The Asian drivers’ impact on world trade of primary commodities: will it last? (2/3) Minerals and metals (impact likely to last): In China, import growth is likely to remain strong for several years to support both industrialization and infrastructure development (urban and rural); India is 5 to 20 years behind China in per capita use of commodities such as aluminium, copper and steel – but will industrialization assume a significantly greater role in India’s development trajectory? The Asian drivers’ impact on world trade of primary commodities: will it last? (3/3) Energy (impact most likely to last): Future development of China’s energy use depends on a balance of opposing trends: Continued rapid industrialization, rising living standards and improvements in transport infrastructure will support strong demand; But there remains considerable potential for energy-saving technologies. India has only limited domestic resources. Intensity of energy use, selected countries, 1965–2003(Tons of oil equivalent per GDP in million, PPP-adjusted