Blackjack A Beatable Game.ppt

95% Confidence Intervals Blackjack: A Beatable Game David Parker Advisor: Dr. Wyels California Lutheran University ‘05 Why is Blackjack Beatable? Only game in a casino where the probabilities change from game to game. Rules of Blackjack Player(s) vs. Dealer Object: Closest to 21 without going over Card Values Face Cards = 10 Aces = 1 or 11 (Player’s choice) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 = Numerical value of card drawn. Rules of Blackjack Basic Strategy How to Count Cards Dr. Edward Thorp (1962) High cards are good for the player. Card Counting Cards 2,3,4,5,6 are worth +1 Cards 10,J,Q,K,A are worth -1 Cards 7,8,9 are neutral and are worth 0 Player keeps a running total of cards played in their head. Once the deck is reshuffled the count is reset to zero. The Truecount Julian H. Braun (1964) A high count becomes more beneficial to the player as the number of cards played increases. A truecount of +8 after 8 cards have been played: A truecount of +8 after 44 cards have been played: Truecount (Cont.) Player still keeps track of count. Player keeps track of total number of cards played. Complete Count = Count divided by the number of decks have not been completely exhausted. Truecount = Floor (Complete Count). Maple Simulation Dealer Card Up Player Cards Final Player Cards Outcome Count Probability of winning at count Number of Cards Played Truecount Probability of Winning at Truecount Betting Strategies Thorp – Bet Count Braun – Bet Truecount Hi-Low When the truecount is in the player’s favor (2), bet 20 chips, otherwise bet 1 chip. MIT Team Pick a betting unit. When there is a favorable truecount (2), bet the [truecount x (betting unit)]. Otherwise bet half the betting unit. Maple Simulation Dealer Card Up Player Cards Final Player Cards Outcome Count Probability of winning at count Number of Cards Played Truecount Probability of Winning at Truecount Betting Consistently Thorp Braun Hi-Low MIT Blackjack Team Amount Bet Amount Won/Lost Total amount Won/Lost Maple Sim