基于分段三次曲线拟合的广州周发案量预测.pdfVIP

25 6 2008 6 : 1006- 9348( 2008) 06- 0257- 04 张 浩, 任义广, 沙基昌 (, 410073) : , , , , , , , , , : ; ; ; ; : TP3919 : A Prediction of GuangzhousWeekly Law CaseQuantity Based on PiecewiseCubic Curve- fitting ZHANG H ao, REN Y i- gua g, SHA Ji- cha g ( College of I form atio System a d M a agem e t, N atio alU ivers ity of Defe se Tech ology, Cha gshaH u a 410073, Chi a) ABST ACT: The public security co d itio ofGua gzhou is gradually becom i g more com plex alo g w ith the cease less exped iti g of urba izatio a d the grow i g populatio . I order to m ake early- w ar i g of Gua gzhous future public security co ditio a d support the decisio - m ak i g of the gover m e t, it eeds to pred ict fu ture law case qua tity com paratively exactly first. For curre tly the statistic data ofGua gzhous law case is com paratively few, a d the law case qua tity is i flue ced obviously by Ch i ese Spri g Festival, aw eek ly law case qua tity pred ictio model ami i g at the deficie cy of applyi g trad itio al tmi e series pred ict m ethodology a d based o piecew ise cub ic curve- fitti g is prese ted, a d the co cretemodeli g a d com putatio steps are proposed. Fi ally, th is m ethodology is veri fied through real data a d proves to be effective. KEYWO DS: Law case qua tity; Pred ict; T mi e series; Piecew ise cub ic curve; F itti g , 1 , , , , , , , , , , , ,