老年人消费需求影响因素分析及我国老年人消费需求增长预测.pdfVIP

2001 5 No. 5, 2001 ( 128 ) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot. No. 128) 老年人消费需求影响因素分析 及我国老年人消费需求增长预测 李建民 ( , 300071) : 目前我国已经进入老年人口快 增长期, 并由此推动了老年人消费需求的迅 增长老年 人的收入水平和收入来源稳定性消费倾向消费行为等方面都具有与其他年龄人口不同的特点, 并直接影响着老年人的消费需求利用标准消费人方法估计, 目前我国老年人的消费需求总量大 约为3100 亿元, 到2005 年可能会突破6000 亿, 2010 年可能会突破 1 万亿这 个庞大的消费需求为 我国老年产业的发展奠定了坚实的基础 : 消费需求; 老年人 : C913 :A : 1000- 1 9(2001) 05- 0010- 07 Consumption Demand of the Chinese Elderly: An Analysis of the Affecting Variables with Projection LI Jian-min ( Population and Development Research Institute,Nankai University Tianjin 300071) Abstract : China has stepped into the period of fast growing in the number of elderly,which in turn rais- ing rapidly the consumption demand of the elderly. The elderly has the characteristics different from the population of other age segments in the respects of consumption demand, level and stability of income, marginal propensity of consumption, consumption behavior, which directly determine the consumption de- mand of the elderly. By the / standard unit of consumption0, it is estimated that the total consumption de- mand of the elderly of China was about 310 billion in 2000, and will increase to about 600 billions in 2005 and one trillion in 2010, respectively. Keywords: consumption demand; the elderly , 2000 60 1131 , 2005 11 6 , 2117%, 2010 117 , 5 3103% , 21 , : 2001- 01- 10 : ( 1955- ) , , , , # 10 # [ 1] , / 0 , , , : ? ? , , , : ; / 0, , , , : , , , , : , 11 , , , : , , , , ( 1) [ 2] , , ( ) , ( , ) , ( 1) 图1 美国197 年分类商品的户主年龄别消费指数( 100)