基于响应不变法的GM_1_1_模型的动态特性分析.pdfVIP

30 5 () ol.30 No. 5 2008 10 J of China T hree Gorges Univ. ( Natural Sciences) Oct. 2008 GM(1,1) 邹红波 裴 强 吉培荣 刘洪刚 ( 三峡大学 电气信息学院, 湖北宜昌 443002) :GM( 1, 1) 模型的建模过程是由白化微分方程离散化得到差分方程, 再由该差分方程估计模 型参数. 由于离散化引入了误差, 导致白化微分方程 差分方程的响应发生了变化. 基于响应不变 法, 提出了一种新的无偏GM( 1, 1) 模型. 对基于响应不变法的GM( 1, 1) 模型的动态特性进行了分 析, 明确了该模型的特性 适用条件. : GM( 1, 1) 模型; 响应不变法; 收敛; 发散; 混沌 : N941. 5 :A : 1672948X(2008) Dynamic FeatureAnalysis of GM (1, 1) Model Based on Response Invariant Method Zou Hongbo Pei Qiang Ji Peirong Liu Honggang (College of Electrical Engineering Information Science, China T hree Gorges Univ. , Yichang 443002, China) Abstract T he modeling of GM ( 1, 1) model is to gain difference equation by dispersing albinism differential equation, then estimate model parameters by the difference equation. Because of error by dispersing albinism differential equation, the response of difference equation is changed relative to differential equation. A new GM ( 1, 1) model is given based on response invariant method. And then the analysis of dynamic feature of GM ( 1, 1) model based on response invariant method is given, so as to research its characteristics and suitable object of prophesy. eywords GM( 1, 1) model; response invariant method; convergence; divergence; chaos [ 12] GM( 1, 1) 1 GM(1, 1) . , [34] . , 1. 1 . GM( 1, 1) h ( t) , [5] , GM( 1, 1) , [6] H (s) , H ( z