变化环境下昭通市干旱演变规律分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 393-397 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.15061 Published Online October 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Drought Evolution Analysis of Zhaotong City in * Changing Environments 1 1 1 1 2 Zhijie Liang , Ping Xie , Bin Xu , Xi’nan Li , Li Chen 1State Key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 2Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan Email: liangzhijie0209@163.com Received: Aug. 11th th th , 2012; revised: Aug. 26 , 2012; accepted: Sep. 11 , 2012 Abstract: Under the influence of climate changes and human activities, drought disaster emerged the incon- sistent features such as rate of recurrence higher, duration longer, disaster losses increased and so on. Based on the inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation principle, put forward the drought frequency calcula- tion based on jump analysis to analyze drought variation under changing environment. The example about Zhaotong Yunnan Province was attached, and the results show that: compared with the past conditions, the level and the frequency of drought occurs a significant change. The probability of occurrence of extraordi- nary drought is 0.5% in the past; but it’s 5% now. The probability of occurrence of heavy drought now is seven times than it’s in past. This indicates that the climate in the Zhaotong City is developing toward the di- rection which is not conducive to the crop growth and the development and utilization