发展中国家环境经济模型非线性动力学模型研究.pdf

王洪礼等 No.: 0912 ◆ 发展中国家的环境经济模型的非线性动力学模型研究 ★ 王洪礼 葛根 许佳 摘要：众多发展中国家的经济发展过程中造成的环境破坏和GDP的关系并不满足发达国家的倒“U”型模型。在很长的一段时间内， 经济发展规模会和环境污染、资源消耗仍然成正比关系。根据这一现实，本文建立了一个关于环境污染、经济发展及自然资源消耗 的数学模型。该模型根据非线性动力学理论研究了模型稳态的稳定性和分岔现象，用以研究经济发展参数对环境污染和资源消耗的 控制是否能达到一个动态的平衡。并且在原有稳态模型的基础上提出了随机因素对模型的影响，研究了改进后的随机动力学模型对 经济、环境和资源平衡的影响。最终用数值模拟证明了理论的分析正确性。 关键词：环境经济，稳定性，随机 An Ecological-economy stochastic model for developing countries Wang HongLi Ge Gen XuJia School of Mechanics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China Abstract:In this paper, we have proposed and analyzed an economy–nature resource–pollution system for some developing countries where the relationship between economy and pollution does not fit the inverted U-shape curve. We have observed that if the consumption rate to the nature resources by the economic development exceeds certain threshold determined by the other parameters of the system, then the system is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable around the positive interior equilibrium. Moreover, to observe the effect of environmental and economic stochastic on such system, the deterministic model has been modified by allowing random fluctuations around the positive interior equilibrium. The stochastic stability properties of the model have been investigated both analytically and numerically suggesting that the deterministic model is robust with respect to stochastic perturbations. Suitable thresholds of the intensity of the stochasticity have been obtained to control the system under the influence of environmental stress. Keywords: Eco-economy system , Stochastic perturbations, Stability; Control 1 引言