城市土地价格时空变化规律：来自新兴市场证据.pdfVIP

第六届全国土木工程研究生学术论坛 清华大学 2008 城市土地价格的时空变化规律：来自新兴市场的证据 任荣荣，刘洪玉 (清华大学建设管理系，北京 100084) Alonso 1960 Muth 1964 Mills 1967 摘 要： 自 （ ）， （ ）和 （ ）提出单中心城市模型以来，学者一直致力于对地价决定方程的研 究，并将地价的时空变化与城市空间结构的演变相结合。但地价统计数据的难获得性使得已有文献对地价时空变化规律的实 证发现远远落后于理论研究。本文利用北京市1993～2007年土地交易的微观数据，基于Hedonic模型的思想建立了地价决定模 型，检验城市经济学理论对地价影响因素及地价时空变化的基本预测是否在中国新兴土地市场中得到验证；在此基础上， 文章进一步构建了地价的时间和空间价格指数，揭示地价的时空变化规律。研究结果验证了中国新兴土地市场的有效性；可 以为城市地价管理提供参考，以有效发挥价格机制在土地资源配置中的作用；同时也为国际学术界在该领域的相关研究提供 了来自新兴市场的实证案例。 关键词：地价；时空变化；新兴市场；北京 Spatial and Temporal Variations of Land Prices in an Emerging Market REN Rongrong, LIU Hongyu (Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) Abstract: Increasing studies have been conducted to investigate land price functions and the spatio-temporal variations of land prices derived from the monocentric city model by Alonso (1960), Muth (1964) and Mills (1967). However, the paucity of land price statistical data has stymied the empirical tests of the theoretical deductions. Fortunately, the rapid development of land market in China and the micro-data structure of parcel transactions from 1993 to 2007 in Beijing provide us a great opportunity to empirically examine the spatial and temporal variations of land prices in an emerging market. We employ the methodology of Hedonic pricing model to land price determinants function, and test the predictions of urban economic theories on the factors influencing land price formation and on the spatio-temporal variations of land prices in China’s emerging land market. In addition, temporal price index and spatial price in