Predicting Median Substrate.ppt

Predicting Median Substrate for Oregon and Washington EMAP sites Utilizing GIS data Why Predict Median Substrate? Indicator of overall stream health Bed load transport Stream Power Microinvertebrate habitat Fish habitat How is human development affecting a stream What is LD50? LD50 is a measure of median substrate. Geometric mean of class boundaries Log10 of the geometric means Several samples at each site LD50 is the median value of log10(geometric mean of class) Substrate Classifications Geomorphic Metrics ? is the total bank-full shear stress ?s is the density of sediment ? is fluid density g is gravitational acceleration h is bank-full depth S is channel slope Geomorphic Metrics Geologic Metrics Percent Unconsolidated Geologic type versus LD50 r = -0.246, p-value = 1.18 x 10-7 Climatic Metrics Climatic Metrics Average annual potential evapotranspiration (mm) versus LD50 r = -0.046, p-value = 0.342 Land Cover Metrics 1. Developed 2. Barren 3. Forest 4. Grasses 5. Agriculture 6. Wetlands 7. Open water/perennial ice and snow 8. Shrubland Land Cover Metrics Distance-Weighted metrics Additional Land Cover Metrics Buffered Metrics – Buffered within a measure of the stream (30 meters, 100 meters, 300 meters) Buffered and Distance-weighted metrics Goals Predict LD50 without visiting sites Small number of predictors for scientifically sensible model Methods-Stepwise Variable Selection Multiple Linear Regression Top-in-tier models Top geomorphic models plus one from each of the remaining tiers Akaike’s Information Criterion AIC in stepwise variable selection Methods: CART Classification and Regression Trees Methods: CART Classification and Regression Trees Predicted Response: Hybrid of Multiple Linear Regression and CART Utilize CART on the residuals Add indicator variables to the multiple linear regression equation for one minus the number of terminal nodes in the tree Create new multiple regression model with variables and