Chap018权益估值模型.pptVIP

18-* Figure 18.4 Earnings Growth for Two Companies 两家不同公司的盈利增长 18-* Figure 18.6 P/E Ratios for Different Industries, 2007不同行业的市盈率 18-* Other Comparative Value Approaches其他的估值比率 Price-to-book ratio市净率，市值/账面 Price-to-cash-flow ratio股价/现金流 Price-to-sales ratio股价/销售额 18-* Figure 18.7 Market Valuation Statistics市场估值的统计 18-* Free Cash Flow Approach自由现金流估值方法 Value the firm by discounting free cash flow at WACC.使用税后债务成本和权益成本的加权平均收益 Free cash flow to the firm, FCFF, 公司自有现金流equals: After tax EBIT税后息税前利润 Plus depreciation加上折旧 Minus capital expenditures减去资本化支出 Minus increase in net working capital再减去净运营资本增加 18-* Comparing the Valuation Models估值模型的比较 In practice Values from these models may differ各个估值模型的价值可能不同 Analysts are always forced to make simplifying assumptions分析师总是倾向于做出各种简化现实的假说 18-* The Aggregate Stock Market整体股票市场 Explaining Past Behavior 解释过去的行为 Forecasting the Stock Market 预测股票市场的表现 18-* Table 18.4 SP 500 Price Forecasts Under Various Scenarios不同情境下对标准普尔500指数的预测 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright ? 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 18 Equity Valuation Models 权益估值模型 18-* Valuation: Fundamental Analysis估值：基础分析 Fundamental analysis models a company’s value by assessing its current and future profitability.基础分析是指通过公司现在以及未来的盈利状况对公司价值进行建模分析 The purpose of fundamental analysis is to identify mispriced stocks relative to some measure of “true” value derived from financial data.基础分析的目的是为了找出定价错误的股票，定价错误是相对于某个金融数据计算出来的价值“真值”而言。 18-* Balance Sheet Models资产平衡表模型 Dividend Discount Models (DDM)股利贴现模型 Price/Earnings Ratios市盈率模型 Free Cash Flow Models自由现金流模型 Models of Equity Valuation权益估值模型 18-* Valuation by Comparables比较估值 Compare valuation ratios of firm to industry averages.将公司的某个价值比率与行业的平均值比较 Ratios like price/sales are useful for valuing start-ups that have yet to generate positive earnings.比如价格/销售收入就在评估那些刚创业还没用取得正盈利公司的价值 18-* Limitations of Book Value账面价值的局限性 Book values