影响一个国家贸易盈余的因素有什么.docVIP

影响一个国家贸易盈余的因素有什么？数据及处理external balance），ＧＤＰ年均增长率GDP growth (annual %)，净国外直接投资（Foreign direct investment net BoP, current US$)）, 一般政府最终消费支出（现价），General government final consumption expenditure (current US$)，家庭最终消费支出（现价）Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (current US$)，贸易条件调整Terms of trade adjustment (constant LCU)，失业占总劳动人口的百分比（Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)，国民储蓄（现价）Gross domestic savings (current US$) 五，模型及处理 基于以上数据，建立的模型是： Y=β+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+β5X5+β6X6+β7X7+u β0是截距项， ββ3度量了β4度量了 β5度量了 u是随机误差项。 对Y做回归 利用最小二乘估计结果如下reg var2 var6 var7 var8 var9 var10 var11 var12 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 34 -------------+------------------------------ F( 7, 26) = 76.36 Model | 6.0123e+23 7 8.5890e+22 Prob F = 0.0000 Residual | 2.9247e+22 26 1.1249e+21 R-squared = 0.9536 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9411 Total | 6.3048e+23 33 1.9105e+22 Root MSE = 3.4e+10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ var2 | Coef. Std. Err. t P|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- var6 | 2.72e+08 3.68e+09 0.07 0.942 -7.29e+09 7.83e+09 var7 | .155623 .2741617 0.57 0.575 -.4079244 .7191704 var8 | .0518941 .1427145 0.36 0.719 -.2414597 .3452478 var9 | -.1997351 .0248097 -8.05 0.000 -.2507322 -.148738 var10 | .0032503 .001745 1.86 0.074 -.0003365 .0068371 var11 | 5.94e+08 2.43e+09 0.24 0.809 -4.40e+09 5.59e+09 var12 | .5621306 .1000027 5.62 0.000 .3565721 .7676891 _cons | -1.29e+10 2.10e+10 -0.61 0.544 -5.60e+10 3.02e+10 -----------------------