基于系统动力学的环境承载力仿真与调控.pdfVIP

27 2 2010 2 : 1006- 9348 2010 02- 0294- 05 陈永霞, 薛惠锋, 王媛媛, 解丹蕊 , 710072 : , , , , 2007- 2020 , , ; : ; ; : TP3919 : B Simulation and Adjustment ofEnvironmental Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics CHEN Yong- xia, X E Hui- feng,WANG Yuan- yuan, XIE Dan- rui College ofAutomation, Northwestern Polytechnical niversity, X ian Shanxi 710072, China ABSTRACT: Environmentalbearing capacity is an appropriate degree of the structure ofenvironment system and so cio- econom ic activities. In order to harmonize the econom ic development and environmentalprotection and optmi ize the carrying capacity of the environment in ShaanxiProvince, this research adopts a combination of stable and rational methods, through building models based on systematic dynam ics, smi ulate a series of indexes ofdifferent developing tactics for Shannx iProvince inm id- long term 2007- 2020 , to measure the capability of each tactic in different solutions. An estmi ation ismade based on synthesis of the data, and it concludes the state of capability over load ing, ful,l vacancy . The smi ulation results show that the modelbased on SD of the environmental carrying capacity agreewith actual stale. The results provide a theoreticalbasis for the development ofShanxiProvince plans. KEYW RDS: Environmental carrying capacity; System dynam ics; Comprehensive evaluationmethod , , 1 [2] , , , , , , , , , [ 1] 2 2. 1 , System Dynamics, SD 20 50 JW Forrester ,, ; : 2008- 11- 25 : 2009- 01- 05 , , 294 ! [ 3] , [ 5] , , , , , , , 1 , - 2. 2 SD[4] 1 , , , 2 , , 1 3 , 2 , SD, , , [ 6] , : 2 L. K L. J + D T IR. JK - OR . JK 1 : L. KL. J , IR. JK OR . JK , K , J K , JK J K , D T D T JK 1 : L. K - L. J IR. JK - OR. JK 2 D T , 2. 3 SD , 2 , , 20 80 , Vensmi Vensmi Venta , 10: ta. inc, ? # + # - W indow s, , # -; ? # +# - # - Dynamo , , ; Ven % GDP# + # - # - GDP; smi # - # + # + GDP# + ; 3 SD ? GDP# + # - # - GDP; 3. 1 # +# + # + 1 # +; GDP# + # + # +