台风灾害极值预测——模式和应用.pdf

第39卷第5期 中国海洋大学学报 39(5)．1l。5～1114 墅P：：21Q! … -_●●‘。。-_。’。●●__-●_‘●。-●-_●●_____。_____-__。-___‘_-__-_●-‘。-_’’●。，’。_‘。1_‘_。。’-_。。__‘‘’__‘。-_‘。’-，‘。’‘_。。。。‘。1。。。。’。’。。’。——1。’——。’—————————；o墅9堡9．，旦 !兰呈!旦里坚：些旦!旦!兰垒型旦翌!兰呈翌三兰竺!里竺!翌垒 Hazards--Modelsand ications ExtremeValuePredictionofTyphoon Appl IANGHao。WANG LIUDe—Fu(LIUTeh．fu)，XIEBmTao，PANGLiang，J Feng—Qing of PreventionResearchInstitute，OceanUniversityChina，Qingdao266003，China) ．(Disaater economic induceddisasterisoneofthemost factors development Abstract：Typhoon importantinfluencing livesinChina．Inviewofthe stateof disaster andmorethan250million existing typhoon new ExtremeValue a model，MultivariateCompound tion，andmitigation，thispaperproposesprobability theDou— Distribution(MCEVD)，topredict inducedextremedisasterevents．BasedontheMCEVD typhoon modelestablishedfor disaster and crite。 ble nested typhoon zoningprevention layer multi—objectiveprobability ria Chinacoasts． along extremevalue disaster；multivariatecomp