基于状态与风险评估的老旧变压器安全经济性管理分析.pdfVIP

基于状态和风险评估的老旧变压器 安全经济性管理分析 陈立，郭丽娟，邓雨荣 （广西电网公司电力科学研究院，南宁 530023 ） Safety and Economy Analysis of the Aged Transformer Based the Condition Evaluation and Risk Assessment Chen Li, Guo Lijuan, Deng Yurong (Guangxi Electric Power Research Institute, Nanning, 530023, China) Abstract: There are lots of aged transformers running 面也给电网的安全稳定运行带来较大的潜在隐患， in power systems. Most of these transformers are 增加电网运行风险。论文主要对广西电网运行 15 facing problems such as high losses, deteriorations and 年及以上变压器进行了安全经济性分析，提出了变 defects like oil leakage. On one hand, aged 压器状态评价、风险评估及经济性分析辅助决策的 transformers will cause greater losses and may cause 算法和模型。通过运用变压器状态评价和风险评估 significant pollution when fail, on the other hand, they 技术，分别从安全性和经济性的角度对变压器大修、 may brought potential crisis to the safety and stability, 改造 或更换所能产生的效果进行综合分析，模拟技 and raise the risk of power grid. This paper mainly 改评估结果，提供变压器未来最佳更换时期，实现 analyses the safety and economy of the aged 对老旧变压器的最优化管理。 transformer running 15 years and over. The algorithm 关键词：状态评价 风险管理 经济性分析 优化管理 and model of transformer condition evaluation, risk 辅助决策 assessment and economy analysis decision support are proposed. An optimized management of these aged 0 引言 transformers can be achieved by evaluating the 作为电力系统的主要载体之一，变压器 condition and risk of them, comprehensively analyzing 的安全、稳定运行关系着电网的整体抗风险 the effects of maintenance, refurbishment and 能力。如何保证变压器长期处于良好的工作 replacement of them in the view of both safety and 状态一直是电力企业设备管理的重中之重； finance, simulating the evaluation result of technology 同时，作为高资产价值的设备，对变压器的 remoulding and providing the best replacing time. 管理策略还应考虑其经济性[1,2]，在确保设备 Key word