财务危机预警模型_Z计分模型应用分析_陈娟.pdfVIP

财务危机预警模型—Z计分模型的应用分析 【摘要】 2007年美国爆发了次贷危机，导致诸多银行、投资机构和企业倒闭或申请破产保护，之后迅速蔓延到 世界各地，引起全球金融危机。之后欧债危机使得全球经济再次跌入低谷，市场信心遭受了重大打击。 2008年11月中国政府提出了总投资4万亿元的救市计划，以达到刺激经济增长的目的，并且实施了相关 的财政政策和货币政策。扩大内需，增加出口。次贷危机、欧债危机和国内企业财务危机所引发的一系列 反应，说明加强危机前的预警，对于国家、企业和国民经济的健康平稳发展至关重要。本文在详细梳理已 有的财务危机预警模型的基础上，选择适当的中国ST上市公司样本和配对样本，对Z计分模型及其针对新 兴市场经济体的修正模型——EMS模型进行了小样本的实证检验，发现Z计分模型在我国的适用性较差， 而EMS模型相对更适用于我国上市公司的财务危机预警，文章最后对造成这种情况的原因进行了简要分 析，并就如何进行模型的改进提出了建议。 【关键词】：财务危机；财务危机模型；Z计分模型；EMS模型 【Abstract 】 The American subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, resulting in many Banks, investment institutions and business failures or filed for bankruptcy protection, then quickly spread to all over the world, cause the global financial crisis. Again after the European debt crisis has made the global economy bottomed, suffered a big blow to market confidence. In November 2008, the Chinese government put forward a total investment of 4 trillion dollar rescue plan, to achieve the purpose of stimulating economic growth, and implement the related fiscal policy and monetary policy. To expand domestic demand, increase exports. The subprime crisis, the European debt crisis and the domestic enterprise financial crisis has triggered a series of reactions, that strengthen the warning before the crisis, for the country, the enterprise is vital and healthy and stable development of national economy. This paper in detail, on the basis of the existing financial crisis early warning model, select the appropriate sample and paired samples ST listed companies in China, the z-score model and its correction model for emerging market economies - EMS model are empirically the small sample, and found that the applicability of the z-score model in our country is poorer, and EMS model more suitable for the financial crisis warning of listed companies in our country, the article finally has carried on the brief analysis to the cause of this situation, and how to model the improvement