Nomura-Copper-2016.pdf

T R O P EQUITY RESEARCH E R R O H C N A Copper supply response still a work in progress December 7, 2011 Research analysts The market too bearish on European Metals Mining Patrick Jones - NIplc patrick.jones@ copper; First Quantum key pick, +44 20 7102 5486 upgrading Antofagasta to Buy Australia Metals Mining David Radclyffe - NIplc david.radclyffe@ +44 20 7102 7805 David Cotterell - NAL  Our analysis indicates continued copper market tightness david.cotterell@ +61 3 8681 1074 and we forecast a large copper supply deficit of 454kt in 2012 and 69kt in 2013. This should be supportive for the copper price over the mid-term.  Having underperformed in 2011, copper equities appear to be pricing in pessimistic long-run prices of ~USD 2.40/lb and with the sector trading at 0.8x NPV, offers a buying opportunity.  We upgrade Antofagasta t