变点分析和其在中国证券市场脆弱性研究中的应用.pdf

亘蜜窑誊态兰壅土窭塞皇堂焦垒銮 釜：!墓． 分析。然后将时间间隔较短的变点合并，再根据合并后的变点，划分证券市 场的脆弱水平阶段，将上证指数序列分成13个不同脆弱性的阶段。 关键词： 金融脆弱性；证券市场；变点 酉直至运盔耋亟圭塑塞生兰丝逾塞 筮盥垂 Abst ract The of in is or explanationfragilityEnglisheasily broken，delicate， damaged not and totheliteraturesof P stronghealthy,weak．According Minsky．Hyman financial a that is state financial is orbroken fragility industry easilydamaged of becausefinancial industry havinghigh by careless induces regulation，moralityhazard，externalfactors，it financialcrisisOr indebtednesscrisisor or inflation enterprise ordeflationor bankruptcyhigh unemployment． ofthe Afterthefinanciatcrisis and Asia，many sehotarsbelieve specialists of in thedominant bankfinancialresultsintheAsianfinancial position system on currentliteraturefinancial crisis．The is mostofthem abundant，but fragility aleonthetraditionalcreditmarket．Theof securitiesmarkethasnot