商业房地产项目投资风险分析与的研究.pdf

摘 要 近年来，随着我国房地产市场的日益成熟和加入世贸组织带来的巨大机遇， 商业地产如同雨后春笋，遍地而起。一些国际化色彩明显的新型商业业态如大型 购物中心、仓储式商场、Shopping Mall 也出现在人们的视野之内，一个更加开放、 多元的商业市场新环境逐渐形成。然而在国内商业地产迅速发展的同时，也存在 很多问题，给传统的经营理念与投资理念带来巨大冲击。 商业房地产投资是一项高收益、高风险的投资活动，具有高度综合性、高度 关联性、投资额度大、开发周期长的特点。在商业房地产开发的过程中存在着大 量的风险因素，例如商业房地产市场的供求变化、消费者的喜好、相关政策的调 整、物价的涨跌、汇率及利率的变动，这些因素都直接影响着开发商投资的成败， 常常会出现一招失误，满盘皆输的局面。但是，目前我国的房地产开发商大都不 重视对投资项目的风险研究，只关心投资获得的丰厚利润，忽略隐藏在利润后面 的高风险，在投资决策前期只是评主观经验对项目的风险大小进行判断，缺乏科 学的依据。针对这一现象，提出了商业房地产投资风险综合评价指标体系，利用 模糊综合评价方法对投资项目的风险进行综合评价，为房地产开发商全面科学的 评价商业房地产投资项目的风险提供了一种有效的方法，并提出了有效规避投资 风险的一些措施。 关键词：商业房地产，房地产开发商，投资风险，综合评价指标体系 I ABSTRACT In recent years, as Chinas real estate market has become more sophisticated and entry into the WTO brought about great opportunities, as the proliferation of commercial real estate, the sky over and over. A number of international color of a clear new business formats, such as shopping malls, warehouse-style shopping malls, Shopping Mall also in peoples field of vision, a more open, multi-market business to the new environment gradually. However, the rapid development of the domestic commercial real estate at the same time, there are many problems to the traditional management philosophy and investment tremendous impact. Commercial real estate investment is a high-yield, high-risk investment, is highly integrated with a high degree of relevance, the amount of investment, characterized by long development cycle. In the commercial real estate development in the process of the existence of a large number of risk factors, such as commercial real estate market supply and demand changes in consumer preferences, the policy adjustment, the price of Change, the exchange rate