巢湖流域水文时间序列变点分析.pdf

巢湖流域水文时间序列的变点分析 摘 要 近年来，经济、社会的快速发展，使得巢湖流域这一自然系统的环境日益 恶化，水资源的形势愈发严峻，已经成为巢湖流域经济、社会发展的环境瓶颈， 它使得该地区不能形成良好的人居环境，也不能形成健康、安全的投资环境， 严重影响和制约了流域内经济、社会的可持续发展。水资源的优化配置、有效 利用和保护是巢湖流域经济社会发展和现代化建设的前提和保证。流域内的防 洪抗旱、区域水资源管理、水环境保护、水利水电工程建设等都需要了解和掌 握水文循环规律及其变异情况。水文循环规律及其变异情况的了解和掌握是建 立在分析水文时间序列观测资料的基础之上的，进行水文时间序列分析是问题 的关键，水文时间序列的变点分析是其中一个非常重要的方面。论文利用巢湖 流域的实测水文资料，采用相关序列分析法、分形理论中的R／S分析法和灰色 系统理论中的差异信息法联合起来，对巢湖流域水文时间序列的变点分析进行 初步探讨，为流域水安全管理提供水文依据。 关键词：巢湖流域；水文时间序列；变点分析；变异性；流域水安全管理 AberrancePoint of Analysis ChaohuBasin TimeSeriesof Hydrological Abstract thefast ofeconomicand nature Inrecent social，the years．withdevelopment system basin thewaterresourcessituationhasa conditionsofChaohubecomemuchworse，and becomestheboRleneckofChaohubasineconomicandsocial future，which gloomy in makesthisareacannotfo舯comfortableconditiontoliveandcannot development．and fclrmhealthand climatetoinvest in．Itsbadeffect restrictsthe safety capital seriously sustainable of and inthis developmenteconomysocietybasin．Optimal and ofwaterresourcesarethe and ofbasin using protection prerequisiteguarantee modemizationconstruction．Basinfloodand economicandsocial and development drought ofthe waterresources environment，water control，regional management，waterprotection and constmctionneedtounderstandandmaster conservancyhydropowerpmiects etc．，all and and of law its the hydrologycirculating variation．However,graspunderstanding 1awanditsvariationconditionareestablishmentin hydrologycirculating analysis timeseriesOilthefoundationofobservation out hydrological information．Carry timeseries isthe of the of bydrological analysiskeyproblem，andanalysishydrological timeseriesaberranceand is themost point variability importantaspect．Thispaper series methodoffractal and combined血erelated information analysis．R／S theorydiversity to discussion of in out ofabeyance greysystemtheorycarrypreliminary pointanalysis timeseries the dataofactual ofChaohubasin． hydrologicalusinghydrological measurement orderto for basi