基于云模型的变电站运营成本分析.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 6 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 34 No. 6 2010 年 6 月 Power System Technology Jun. 2010 文章编号：1000-3673 （2010 ）06-0205-05 中图分类号：TM 63 ；TM 732 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 基于云模型的变电站运营成本分析 路石俊，李翔，林艳婷 （华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Analysis on Substation Operating Costs Based on Cloud Model LU Shi-jun, LI Xiang, LIN Yan-ting (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: Based on cloud model theory, the operating cost 是决策、设计、施工、竣工和运营维护阶段[2] 。国 of substation is calculated and analyzed in detail. Firstly, 内有许多文献针对变电站工程全生命周期成本进 substation operating cost is divided into three parts, i.e., 行了分析和研究，提出了变电站全生命周期成本的 operation cost, cost for routine maintenance and repairing and 计算和控制方法[3-4] 。但目前的文献大多集中于设计 power interruption cost, and respective computing formula for these parts are given; then a calculation model of substation 和建设阶段的成本估算和划分，对运营成本考虑得 operating cost is built to determine fixed values and uncertain 较少，即使考虑到运营成本的文献也没有列出其详 values; finally, taking a certain substation for example, 细计算公式，而是采用了快速的大致估算方法。 according to Monte Carlo random number method the Weibull 运营成本作为影响全生命周期成本的重要因 distribution is fetched and 20 sets of cost data are obtained, then based on these data and utilizing backward cloud 素，应引起更多关注。变电站的运营期受到较多不 generator three characteristic values of normal cloud, namely 确定因素(包括环境和人为因素) 的影响，因此，很 expectation, entropy and excess entropy, are obtained. By use 多时候运营