广东电力低碳转型研究：路径、政策与价值.pdf

摘 要 显的促进地区生产总值的增长，促进就业，其中带动最大的是制造业和服务业， 而广东电力低碳转型对价格指数的影响并不大。此外，广东电力低碳转型能够 有效减少大气污染物的产生，改善环境。 关键词：低碳经济 CO2 减排 电力部门 情景分析 能源模型 经济模型 政策分 析 中国广东 II Abstract ABSTRACT One of the major challenges confronting the international community is global climate change. In order to reduce CO2 emissions and trackle climate change, low-carbon development has been considered as the best mode for the future. Guangdong is one of most important province in Chinas economy and is an advanced position of Chinas reform and opening. In order to trackle the climate change, ensure security of economic development and energy supply, and take the responsibility of ―pilot‖, Guangdong has to try the transition to low-carbon economy. Since it consumes the largest share of primary energy and had the highest level of CO2 emission and has technical and economic possibility, the electricity sector of Guangdong has been chosen to analyze the low-carbon transition firstly. In order to analyse the transition, scenario analysis method combined with economic model has been adopted to analyse the pathways, policy and economic effects. In order to analyze the future development of electricity system of Guangdong, The history of Guangdong electricity system and its current status has been investigated, and the trend of social and economic development of Guangdong has been analysed firstly. Based on those investigations and analyses, future electricity demands in Guangdong have been projected. In additional, databases of primary energy supply and available technologies have also been biult. To analyse the possible low-ca