都市計畫,交通建設與產業引進關聯性之研究-以國道5號與大洋都市計畫對頭城地區影響為例.docVIP

都市計畫、交通建設與產業引進關聯性之研究 -以國道5號與「大洋都市計畫」對頭城地區影響為例 林致遠※1 吳銘達兼總務長5號通車後宜蘭縣實際人口數較自然人口成長趨勢推估者為高，顯示近年來宜蘭縣人口負成長現象有減緩甚至反轉之趨勢；（二）北二高沿線地區之發展條件與蘭陽平原相似，在北二高興建完成後，持續吸引人口聚集，而交流道附近10 km以內之人口密度更為全部村里之1.7倍，顯見交通建設確實有利於地區產業發展；（三）從資料分析中可明顯看出，人口預測方法中以二次拋物線最小二乘法為最適合之預測方法，惟純數理之統計方法，因無法考量到交通建設、產業進駐、觀光遊客增加等因素，故推估之人口並無法能有效看出一個地區未來人口發展及成長，實屬不合理，據此本文參酌相關文獻與統計資料，建議修正大洋地區都市計畫之目標人口數為38000人。 A Study of Capital- Plan, Transportation and Industry Related Factors ?–The Case of The National N.5 Highway and the Big Ocean Capital Plan Area Abstract In the past years, because of the inconvenient traffic and lack of work opportunities, the population in Yilan, which located in the eastern area, was immigrating and decreasing. In recent years, the National N.5 Highway was opened and the Big Ocean Capital Plan was proceeded. It influenced whether the population increased by the convenient of transportation and brought the industry into Yilan or not. It was the issue we wanted to discuss in this paper. Due to the information is not easy to get, the study used secondary analysis and frequently predict of population methods, such as arithmetical method and geometrical, to predict the growth tendency of population in Yilan. From the information analysis and the discussion, the conclusions included the following statements:（1）The increase of population in Yilan showed that after National Expressway No.5 opened, the actual growth of population was higher than the prediction of natural growth in Yilan County. The data showed that the negative growth of population in Yilan had been slowed down even much better.（2）The development condition of the area along the Second Northern Highway was similar to Lanyang Plain, especially after the Second Northern Highway completed. It continued to attract the population get together. Around the interchange about 10 km, the population densities were 1.7th times compared to the whole village. It was obvious to see traffic construction influenced the region development indeed.（3）Accor