《bod_projections2030_paper-Updated projections of global》.pdf

Updated projections of global mortality and burden of disease, 2002-2030: data sources, methods and results. Colin D. Mathers, Dejan Loncar Evidence and Information for Policy Working Paper Evidence and Information for Policy World Health Organization October 2005 Revised November 2006 1. Introduction As part of the original Global Burden of Disease study for the year 1990, Murray and Lopez prepared projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause forward to 2000, 2010 and 2020 under three alternate scenarios (Murray and Lopez A.D. 1996; Murray and Lopez 1997). These projections have been widely used and continue to be quoted byWHO programs seeking to provide information on likely future trends in global health, see for example (Mackay and Mensah 2004). However, these projections were based on the GBD 1990 estimates and on projections of HIV/AIDS, smoking, income and human capital from 1990 to 2020. The HIV/AIDS projections in particular have proven to substantially underestimate to spread of the HIV epidemic and the level of HIV/AIDS mortality around 2000. To address the need for updated projections of mortality and burden of disease by region and cause, we have prepared projections of future trends for mortality and burden of disease between 2002 and 2030 using methods similar to those used in the original Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, but based on the latest available GBD estimates for 2002, and using the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital and other inputs. Funding support was provided for this work by two WHO programs requiring up-to-date mortality and burden of disease projections: the WHO Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion (NMH/CHP), and the WHO Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and