A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling.pdfVIP

ActaOceano1．Sin．2015，Vo1．34，No．3，P90—98 DOI：1O．10071s13131-0150636．5 http：／／www．hyxb．org．cn E—mail：hyxbe@263．net A zyquantificationapproachofuncertaintiesinanextrem e waveheightmodeling ZHANGYi ．CAOYingyi DivisionofInfrastructureSystem sandMaritimeStudies，SchoolofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering， NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore639798，Singapore CollegeofPreschoolEducation，ZiboNormalCollege，Zibo255130，China Received24February2014；accepted21October2014 OTheChineseSocietyofOceanographyandSpringer—VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2015 Abstract Anon-traditional fuzzyquantificationmethodispresentedinthemodelingofanextremesignificantwave height．First，asetofparametricmodelsareselectedtofittimeseriesdataforthesignificantwaveheightand theextrapolationforextremesareobtainedbasedonhighquantileestimations．Thequalityoftheseresults iscomparedanddiscussed．Then，theproposedfuzzymodel，whichcombinesPoissonprocessandgener— alizedParetodistribution (GPD)model，isappliedtocharacterizingthewaveextremesinthetimeseries data．Theestimationsforalong—term returnvalueareconsideredastime—varyingasathresholdisregarded asnon—stationary．Theestimatedintervalscoupledwiththefuzzytheoryarethenintroducedtoconstruct theprobabilityboundsofrthereturnvalues．Thisnontraditionalmodelisanalyzedincomparisonwi ththe traditionalmodelinthedegreeofconservatism ofrthelong．term estimate．Theimpactonthefuzzybounds ofextremeestimationsfrom thenonstationaryeffectintheproposedmodelisalsoinvestigated． Keywords：offshoreengineering，extremevaluedistribution，waveheight，peakoverthreshold，fuzzyset， Paretodistribution Citation：ZhangYi，CapYingTi．2015．Aufzzyquantificationapproachofuncertaintiesinanextremewaveheightmodeling．Acta OceanologicaSinica，34(3)：90-98，doi：10．1007／s13131—015—0636—5 1Introduction 0neofthequestionsthatmayariseiswhetheralternativemod— Theanalysisanddesignofoffshorestructuresincludethe elssuchasnonprobabilistico