A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics of HIVAIDS with Gradual Behaviour Change.pdfVIP

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2006, 15–26 A mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV/AIDS with gradual behaviour change F. BARYARAMA, J. Y. T. MUGISHA* and L. S. LUBOOBI Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda (Received 20 April 2006; revised 11 May 2006; in final form 5 June 2006) An HIV/AIDS model that incorporates gradual behaviour change is formulated with a variable force of infection for the adult population. The variability is modelled using a general function of time since introduction of the initial infective and exemplified for three specific functions. Expressions for the time taken for the reproductive number to reduce to unity and expressions for the time taken to attain a stationary steady state are deduced and discussed. Model projections for urban, peri-urban and rural Uganda are compared with corresponding antenatal clinic sites prevalence trends. The analysis shows that the dramatic decline in HIV prevalence in Uganda in the early 1990s was only possible through drastic declines in the force of infection. Since prevalence was high and reductions in frequency of sexual acts was minimal, the huge reduction could be attributed to reductions in probability of transmission per sexual act probably due to increased selective condom use among high risk sexual partnerships since overall condom use was low. Keywords: Behaviour change; Variable force of infection; Replacement number; Antenatal 1. Introduction Behaviour change is believed to be the main weapon against HIV/AIDS worldwide. A model by Ying-Yen and Cooke [1] on behaviour change and treatment of core groups and its effect on the spread of HIV/AIDS showed that behaviour change and treatment can eradicate the disease. In Uga