基于预测模型的企业财务风险分析(pdf 9页)-精.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 基于预测模型的企业财务预警分析 赵占雪* （北京邮电大学经济管理学院，北京 100876 ） 摘要：企业中大量的决策问题都离不开预测，如何在众多预测方法中选择一个较为满意的预 测模型是众多预测者面对的一个难题。同时，企业需要在正确选择预测模型的基础上，建立 完善的财务预警系统来应对各方面的危机与风险。为规避财务危机，减少财务损失，企业应 该经常性地利用财务会计报告和其他相关经营资料，结合运用多变量分析模型和单变量分析 模型，进行财务预警动态分析，从而保证企业持续、健康、有效地经营。本文在简要介绍预 测模型选择和财务预警后，重点对基于预测模型的企业财务预警进行了分析，并结合国内市 场现状以及典型案例，予以阐述，得出结论：建立有效的预警系统,在坚持多变量、单变量 预警分析相结合的基础上,充分发挥预警机制的作用,尽早依数据所代表的经营内涵深入分析 存在的问题,及时做出正确决策。 关键词： 信息管理；预测模型；财务预警； 中图分类号：F275 The Models of Financial Early Warning Analysis Based on Forecast Model in Enterprises ZHAO Zhanxue (Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876) Abstract: Now a lot of problems can’t be separated from the decision-making forecasts in enterprises. How to choose a more satisfied prediction method from many model is faced with many forecasters. Meanwhile enterprises need the right choice in the prediction model based on a sound financial early warning system to deal with all aspects of the crisis and risk. By using financial statements and other relative management information ，enterprises must constantly apply the models of financial early warning analysis to avoid financial Distress ，to decrease financial losses and to ensure a sustained ， healthy and efficient development. Multiple-variable analysis must integrate with single-variable analysis so as to give full play to the functions of models. This paper firstly analyses the forecast model selection and financial early warning analysis briefly, and then focuses on forecasting models based on the enterprises financial warning in light of the domestic market situation and the typical case. Finally