粗糙集法解多环境因素影响的母线负荷预测问题.pdfVIP

37 卷 5 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 5 20 13 年5 月 Power System Technology May 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）05-1335-06 中图分类号：TM 734 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470 4054 粗糙集法解多环境因素影响的母线负荷预测问题 龙丹丽，黎静华，韦化 （广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学) ，广西壮族自治区 南宁市 530004 ） Solution of Multi Environmental Factor-Influenced Bus Load Forecasting by Rough Set Method LONG Danli, LI Jinghua, WEI Hua (Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology (Guangxi University), Nanning 530004, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China) ABSTRACT: There are numerous environmental factors 关键词：母线负荷预测；粗糙集；属性约简；离散化 influencing bus load and the relation among these factors are 0 引言 complex, and the forecasting accuracy of bus load will be reduced due to leading in irrelevant random information while 母线负荷是指由变电站主变压器供给一个相 all attributes of environmental factors are taken into account. A [1] 对较小供电区域终端负荷的总和 。对一个电力系 rough set (RS) method for bus load forecasting, in which multi 统而言，提高电网运行的安全性和经济性、改善电 environmental factors are considered, is proposed. The fast [2] attribute reduction algorithm (FARA) is adopted to determine 能质量都依赖于准确的母线负荷预测 。当今系统 condition attributes influencing bus load evidently. Based on 负荷预测已达到较高精度，而母线负荷的基数小， probabilistic rules the decision rule set is derived, and then bus 网区内大用户的随机变化造成的波动大，准确预测 load forecasting is implemented by matching rules based on 困难。 distanc