3.事故预测数学模型的研究与实践.pdfVIP

1 9 1 2 Vol. 19No. 12 2 0 0 9 1 2 China Safety Science Journal Dec. 2 0 0 9 * 顾晓叶1 教授 于殿宝2 教授 朱玉生2 工程师 ( 1徐州建筑职业技术学院继续教育学院, 徐州 221116 2徐州建筑职业技术学院安全工程与技术应用研究所, 徐州 221116) : 6201035( ) : X928. 03 : A = 依据收集统计的 实可靠的事故数据, 运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型, 在 工作中理论与实际相结合, 提出并建立了事故预测数学模型, 给出具体方法与步骤, 以及应用中应遵 循的原则和规律, 从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知, 用以指导安全生产活动, 预防事故发生同 时, 根据我国近 18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型, 并运用确立的最佳事故预 测数学模型而预测出的事故数据, 探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势 = 事故预测; 数学模型; 数据; 研究; 应用 esearch and Practice ofAccident PredictionMathematicalModels 1 2 2 GU Xiao-ye, Prof. YU Dian-bao, Prof. Z U Yu-sheng, Engineer ( 1College of Continuing Education, Xuzhou Institute ofArchitecturalTechnology Application, Xuzhou 221116, China 2 Institute of Safety Engineering Technology, Xuzhou Institute of ArchitecturalTechnology Application, Xuzhou 221116, China) Abstract: Based on the real and reliable accidentdata collected statistically, relatedmathematicalmeth- ods and accident prediction models, an accident prediction mathematicalmodel is proposed and built. Meanwhile, the concretemethod and steps, and the principles and rules followed during application are given. Based on the casualty data ofvarious types of accidents in recent 18 years, an accident prediction mathematicalmodel is established, and the related accident data in the future is predicted. Finally, the accident trend in China is discussed according to the predication data.