基于出行链随机模拟的电动汽车充电需求分析.pdfVIP

39 卷 6 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 39 No. 6 20 15 年6 月 Power System Technology Jun. 2015 文章编号：1000-3673 （20 15）06-1477-08 中图分类号：TM 72 1 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 基于出行链随机模拟的电动汽车充电需求分析 温剑锋，陶顺，肖湘宁，骆晨，廖坤玉 （新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Analysis on Charging Demand of EV Based on Stochastic Simulation of Trip Chain WEN Jianfeng, TAO Shun, XIAO Xiangning, LUO Chen, LIAO Kunyu (State Key Laboratory for Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: The analysis on charging demand of electric 拟用户的出行规律，反映充电需求的时空分布特点；而且 vehicles (EV) is the foundation of the research on the impact 不同的充电情景将导致不同的分布形式，从而影响系统的 of EV charging on power grid and the planning and layout of 功率总需求。 charging infrastructure, and to analyze the charging demand 关键词：电动汽车；充电需求；出行链；蒙特卡罗模拟 of EV the driving rules of the EV drivers should be accurately described firstly. For this reason, based on stochastic DOI 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.06.002 simulation of the trip chain a method to analyze charging 0 引言 demand is proposed. At first, combining with the concept of 电动汽车作为缓解能源危机与环境污染问题 trip chain, the probability distribution of characteristic [1] variables in the trip chain such as trip start time, driving time, 的重要途径，近年来得到大力发展 。电动汽车的 driving distance and trip purpose are analyzed and fitted; 普及将引发大量充电需求，准确预测电动汽车充电 secondly, the samples are extracted by Monte-Carlo 需求的时空分布是充电设施的选址定容、分析充电 simulation to form a complete trip chain