基于遗传灰色神经网络模型的实时电价条件下短期电力负荷预测.pdfVIP

第 36 卷 第 1 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 36 No. 1 2012 年 1 月 Power System Technology Jan. 2012 文章编号：1000-3673 （2012 ）01-0224-06 中图分类号：TM 715 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 基于遗传灰色神经网络模型的 实时电价条件下短期电力负荷预测 葛少云，贾鸥莎，刘洪 （智能电网教育部重点实验室(天津大学) ，天津市 南开区 300072 ） A Gray Neural Network Model Improved by Genetic Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Price-Sensitive Environment GE Shaoyun, JIA Ousha, LIU Hong (Key Laboratory of Smart Grid (Tianjin University), Ministry of Education, Nankai District, Tianjin 300072, China) ABSTRACT: In the condition of smart grid, there will be 传算法对网络进行优化，从而提高了预测的精确度。实例证 many great changes in power consumption pattern of power 明该算法能较好地解决实时电价下的短期负荷预测问题。 consumers, and a significant change in the power consumption 关键词：智能电网；实时电价；负荷预测；遗传算法；灰色 pattern is that based on the real-time price consumers can 神经网络 adjust their electricity consumption modes and it makes the forecasting of power load complicated. On the basis of 0 引言 analyzing various factors impacting on short-term load 电力系统短期负荷预测(short term load fore- characteristics, based on the synthetical consideration of real-time price a gray neural network method improved by casting，STLF)是能量管理系统(energy management genetic algorithm is proposed. Utilizing the property of gray system，EMS) 的重要组成部分，对电力系统安全调 model that the randomness of data can be reduced by it and the 度和经济管理起着指导性作用，一般主要用来预测 s