风速和风电功率的联合条件概率预测方法.pdfVIP

第 31 卷 第 7 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.31 No.7 Mar.5, 2011 2011 年 3 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2011 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 7 0258-8013 (2011) 07-0007-09 TM 73 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 风速与风电功率的联合条件概率预测方法 王松岩，于继来 (哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150001) Joint Conditions Probability Forecast Method for Wind Speed and Wind Power WANG Songyan, YU Jilai (School of Electric Engineering Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang Province, China) ABSTRACT: Certainty forecast method could not meet the 的概率分布结果。 need of risk analysis and system operation because probability 关键词：风速预测；风电功率预测；概率预测；误差概率分 information was not included. This paper chose measured 布；偏度修正；联合条件概率分布 speed and forecast speed as joint conditions and made a discrete forecast error probability distribution (FEPD) model 0 引言 which could be used for next-time wind speed probability 随着风电渗透进电网容量的快速增大，其随机 forecast. Firstly speed disturbance probability distribution 性、不可控性和反调峰等特性给电力系统运行带来 (DPD) was adopted to modify skewness of FEPD with 的困扰越发凸显，并使得风速和风电功率(wind modification factor, then modified FEPD and certainty forecast speed and wind power，WSWP)预测变得更为重要。 value were combined to obtain wind speed probability 与确定性预测相比，概率预测可以给出未来时刻不 distribution forecast result. DPD, FEPD and modification factor were all obtained from historical data with different 同 WSWP 值出现的概率，对在合理风险水平下安 statistical periods. In modification p