observing system simulation experiments.pptVIP

Observing System Simulation Experiments Lars Peter Riishojgaard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Role of a National OSSE Capability Impact assessment of future missions Decadal Survey and other science and/or technology demonstration missions (NASA) Future operational systems (NOAA) Objective way of establishing scientifically sound and technically feasible user requirements for observing systems Tool for assessing performance impact of engineering decisions made throughout the development phases of a space program or system Preparation/early learning tool for assimilation users OSSEs Observing System Simulation Experiments Typically aimed at assessing the impact of a hypothetical data type on a forecast system Not straightforward; EVERYTHING must be simulated Simulated atmosphere (“nature run”) Simulated reference observations (corresponding to existing observations) Simulate perturbation observations (object of study) = Costly in terms of computing and manpower OSSE QA:“Why can’t you just use real atmospheric situations and real data instead of having to simulate everything?” The goal of the OSSE is to test whether a given non-existing type of data could improve on the initial conditions and hence prediction capabilities; how would we do that? “You just simulate these new observations and add them to the assimilation” We simulate them based on what? “Based on the actual atmospheric state!” Unfortunately that would be impossible. The “actual atmospheric state” is by definition unknown; we only have an imperfect estimate based on the actual observations. There is no way of knowing how additional data would have changed that had they existed. Why a NASA-NOAA OSSE capability? OSSEs are expensive Nature run, entire reference observing system, additional observations must be simulated Calibration experiments, perturbation experiments must be assessed according to standard operational practice and using