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can hepatitis b mothers strongaccountstrong for the number of missing
Can Hepatitis B Mothers Account for the Number of Missing
Women? Evidence from Three Million Newborns in Taiwan
Ming-Jen Lin and Ming-Ching Luoh *
_____________________________________________________________________
ABSTRACT
The ‘missing women’ phenomenon in many Asian countries has previously been regarded
as the result of son preference and change in economic conditions. However, some studies
later argued that since the sex ratio of the offspring of Hepatitis B mothers is around 150,
half of the missing women can be explained by this natural disease.
Using an atypical national data set from Taiwan, we demonstrate that the marginal
probability of an HBsAg(+) mother having a male birth ranges only from 0.0010 to 0.0025.
In addition, this estimate does not vary with birth order and the sex composition of
previous children. Given that 15 percent of mothers are HBV carriers, the disease can only
raise the sex ratio from a base line of 105 to 105.165 at most. Our estimates suggest that
the effect of HBV mothers on the offspring sex ratio, and hence on the cause of missing
women, is minimal. Finally, we find that a third or higher birth, particularly in families
where the first two children are female, the probability that the third child is male rises by
0.02, from a baseline sex ratio of 105 to 115.
*
Ming-Jen Lin and Ming-Ching Luoh are, respectively, Associate Professor and Professor at the
Department of Economics, National Taiwan University; the corresponding author is Ming-Jen Lin. Address
for correspondence: Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, No.21 Hsu Chow Road, Taipei
100, Taiwan. Tel: 886-2xt 463, email: mjlin@ntu.edu.tw.
1
1. INTRODUCTION
In an article entitled ‘More than 100 million women are missing’, Sen (1990) argued
that if men and women were treated equally, the number of women should
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