glacial inceptions past and future.pdfVIP

Glacial Inceptions: Past and Future† Lawrence A. Mysak* Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street W. Montreal QC H3A 2K6 [Original manuscript received 28 August 2007; accepted 4 February 2008] ABSTRACT The realistic simulation of northern hemisphere glacial inceptions, which occurred during the Quaternary period, has challenged scores of climate theoreticians and modellers. After reviewing the Milankovitch theory of glaciation, a number of earlier modelling studies of the last glacial inception (LGI) which have employed either high-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) or Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) are described. The latter class of models has been developed over the past two decades in order to investigate the many interactions and feedbacks among the geophysical and biospheric com- ponents of the Earth system that take place over long time scales. Following a description of the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) and other EMICs, some recent McGill sim- ulations of the LGI in response to orbital (Milankovitch) and radiative (atmospheric CO2) forcings are present- ed. Special attention is given to determining the relative roles of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation, freshwater fluxes into the ocean, orography, cryospheric processes and vegetation dynamics during the ince