《公共交通系统营运可靠性研究》.pdf

第 卷 第 期 公 路 交 通 科 技 VoI .22 No . 10 22 10 年 月 2005 10 JournaI of Highway and Transportation Research and DeveIopment Oct .2005 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 文章编号： （ ） 1002 0268 2005 10 0132 04 ! ! ! 公共交通系统营运可靠性研究 赵 航，宋 瑞 （北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044 ） 摘要：优先发展公共交通是大城市解决交通拥堵，实现城市交通可持续发展的一项重要措施，然而，公交营运水平的 低下制约着公交的发展。本文借鉴可靠性理论对公共交通营运可靠性进行定义，并对公交营运时间和乘客服务可靠性 分别进行了描述，据此建立起公交系统营运可靠性模型，然后采用随机模拟技术 （即Monte CarIo 模拟）进行求解，通 过算例说明模型的可行性，最后通过分析可靠性模型得出大型活动期间改善公交营运的途径。 关键词：交通工程；营运可靠性；Monte CarIo 模拟；公共交通；出行时间 中图分类号：U491. 1+ 12 文献标识码：A Study on Reliability of Transit Operation ZHAo Hang ，SoNG Rui （ ， ， ， ） SchooI of Traffic and Transportation Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing 100044 China Abstract ：It is very important measure to deveIop pubIic transportation for resoIving traffic jam and carrying out sustainabIe urban traffic ， deveIopment but the deveIopment of pubIic transportation is restricted by service IeveI of the transit operation . This paper describes the reIiabiIity of transit operation with the reIiabiIity theory . And the reIiabiIity of traveI time and customer services is defined in the paper . According to the definitions， ， the modaI of the reIiabiIity of transit operation can be estabIished and it can be computed by Monte CarIo simuIation .The feasibiIity of the modaI was testified by the exampIe .The way of improving service was proposed by anaIyzing the modaI