Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability.pdfVIP

Vol 438|17 November 2005 |doi:10.1038/nature04141 REVIEWS Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions 1 2 3 T. P. Barnett , J. C. Adam D. P. Lettenmaier All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate —for example, on the frequency of heatwaves—this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth’s population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability— predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions—are likely to be severe. ater is essential to human sustenance. Well over half of snow accumulation and spring melt, the performance of water the world’s potable water supply is extracted from management systems such as reservoirs, designed on the basis of rivers, either directly or from reservoirs. The discharge the timing of runoff, is much more strongly related to temperature of the