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Otmar Issing
Monetary Policy and Balance Sheet
Adjustment
White Paper Series No. 15
This paper was presented at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, 27 May 2014 in Sintra, Portugal.
SAFE Policy papers represent the authors‘ personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views
of the Center of Excellence SAFE or its staff.
Monetary Policy and Balance Sheet Adjustment1
Otmar Issing
June 2014
In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis that started in 2007, policymakers were forced to
respond quickly and forcefully to a recession caused not by short-term factors, but rather by
an over-accumulation of debt by sovereigns, banks, and households: a so-called “balance
sheet recession.” Though the nature of the crisis was understood relatively early on, policy
prescriptions for how to deal with its consequences have continued to diverge.
Normal vs. balance sheet recessions
Already at an early stage of the crisis which erupted in 2007, a broad consensus emerged: all
efforts had to be taken to avoid the mistakes of the past, and prevent the global economy
from falling into a depression. Monetary policy and fiscal policy reacted quickly and
forcefully.
However, it soon became evident that the major countries were not just confronted with a
“normal” recession. Concerns of a panic in the financial system were visible in discussions
about the threat of a “Minsky moment,” that is, a sudden major collapse in asset values.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) identified high indebtedness as the overriding characteristic of
financial disasters in more than 60 countries over a period of eight centuries. The worst case
scenario is one where all three sectors—that is, the public, banking and private household
sectors—accumulate unsustainable levels of de
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