大用户模糊优化购电组合策略的研究.pdfVIP

第 30 卷 第 10 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.30 No.10 Apr.5, 2010 98 2010 年 4 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2010 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2010) 10-0098-07 TM 73 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 大用户模糊优化购电组合策略的研究 郑雅楠，李庚银，周明 ( 电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206) Studies of Electricity Procurement Strategy for Large Consumers Based on Fuzzy Optimization ZHENG Ya-nan, LI Geng-yin, ZHOU Ming (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control(North China Electric Power University), Ministry of Education, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: With the development of retail power market, 目标及容差，建立了线性隶属函数的均值–风险价值(value at large consumers can choose purchasing electric energy among risk ，VaR)最优购电组合模型。算例表明：电价的综合预测 spot market, long-term contract trade power market and 体现了现货市场和长期合约市场的相关性，预测精度更高； autonomous power plant. Based on the role change, considering 购电组合的模糊优化模型保证了用户兼顾电价和风险，更能 the correlativeness of the power price in spot market and 满足用户的期望。 long-term contract trade power market comprehensively, the multi-variable grey model (MGM) (1, n) in power price forecast 关键词：电力市场；大用户直购电；电价预测；多变量灰色 is adopted to make a long-term comprehensive forecast for the 预测模型；购电组合策略；均值–VaR ；模糊优化 power price. Based on the forecasted power price, according to 0 引言 the given expected target and tolerance, the linear membership function and the mean-value at risk (VaR) optimum model of 我国在开放发电侧电力市场取得成效的基础 purchasing electricity are established by u