兆瓦级直驱风力发电机组可靠性增长预测.pdfVIP

第30 卷 第18 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.30 No.18 Jun.25, 2010 2010 年6 月25 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2010 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 67 文章编号：0258-8013 (2010) 18-0067-05 中图分类号：TP 114 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470·40 兆瓦级直驱风力发电机组可靠性增长预测 1 1 1 1 2 孙永全 ，郭建英 ，陈洪科 ，丁喜波 ，崔晓萌 (1．哈尔滨理工大学传感器与可靠性研究所，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150080 ； 2．哈尔滨工业大学电气及自动化学院，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150080) MW Level Direct-driven Wind Turbine Reliability Growth Prediction 1 1 1 1 2 SUN Yong-quan , GUO Jian-ying , CHEN Hong-ke , DING Xi-bo , CUI Xiao-meng (1. Institute of Sensor and Reliability, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080, Heilongjiang Province, China; 2. School of electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150080, Heilongjiang Province, China) ABSTRACT: Based on the generalized gamma distribution a 非齐次泊松过程；预测精度 system reliability growth prediction method was proposed for 0 引言 MW level direct-drive wind turbine in the trial operation phase. According to the random processes and reliability growth 风能作为可再生能源，受到世界各国的高度重 prediction theory, the law that number of wind turbine failure 视[1-2] 。大功率变速恒频风力发电系统以其可大幅提 occurrence accompanied with repair obeys non-homogeneous 高系统效率的优点[3-4]，在风力发电中得到应用，典 Poisson process was clarified during the trial operation phase, 型的机型有双馈式风力发电机组和直驱式永磁同 the future failure number distribution was analyzed, the point estimations and interval estimations of the future failure number 步风力发电机组[5-6] 。兆瓦级直驱式永磁风力发电机