Cosmic Rays and Climate strongChangestrong a brief summary Arnold.pptVIP

Cosmic Rays andClimate Change:a brief summaryArnold Wolfendale,Durham UniversityTolya ErlykinBen LakenTerry Sloan Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010. Effect of CR and other sources of ionization on clouds. ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover. Cosmic Rays and Lightning Lightning and the origin of Life. Global T rise from 1950 to 2010 due, potentially, to CR ?CR11 from 1950 – 2010 - 3% L = ?T/?CR CR11 : CR intensity smoothed over 11-year cycle Two anomalies! Define L = ?T/?CR Method Predicted ?T (1950 / 2010) 1. L from 1890 / 1930, apply to 1950/2010 0.03oC 2. L from IPCC fit cf predicted for 1890/2010 0.003oC 3. L from 11 year solar cycle using p/p = 0.07oC 0.015oC Conclusion Upper limit for ?T (1950/2010) due to CR is 0.03 oC, compared with actual: 0.7 oC, i.e. 4% EVEN THIS COULD BE OF SOLAR ORIGIN Effect of CR changes on Cloud Cover – and other ionization changes INDIA (RADON) Chernobyl Nuclear Bomb tests Bravo bomb 15mt Forbush Decreases Positive CR Cloud Cover Electrical ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover Clouds of different types should have different sensitivities to ionization. Stratiform should be most sensitive. They are very extended. Only edge effects are effective in changing cloud cover. Very approximately ?CC/CC = (1/7) ?CCN/CCN Many km (CCN = ‘charged condensation nuclei’) ‘Cloud’ and Cloud Cover Kulmala et al. (2010) show that ?CCN/CCN 1%, for max CR change. Conclusion CR have a negligible effect on Cloud Cover. Lightning Adam and God SNR Model: A.D. Erlykin and AWW (2001) Miller (1953) – and Miller Urey water, methane, ammonia, etc. (the ‘pre-biotic soup’) Amino-acids RNA Monomers On average, every million years, ICR(1016eV) up by ~ 105 for ~ 30,000 years. Probably enough to cause a sufficiently large frequency of lightning discharges to cause production of RNA, monomers, etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP. after Parman More recently – and more probably – the generation of NOX by lightning will have