Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Central strongBankstrong of.pptVIP

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Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Central strongBankstrong of.ppt

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Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Central strongBankstrong of.ppt

Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations Patrick Honohan The World Bank Prepared for the Central Bank of Turkey 75th Anniversary Conference: “Dollarization: Consequences and Policy Options” Istanbul, December 14-15, 2006 Outline Recent trends and causes Upward trend not irreversible A downturn in dollarization? Short-run currency fluctuations dollarization Fear of floating is exaggerated Impact on risks Of depreciation and suspension Measured by interest rates Trends and causes The steady trend increase is an optical illusion Balanced panel shows downturn after 2001 High dollarization countries are of three types: Inflation legacy; international financial centers, eurofringe Causes of country differences Volatility of inflation and exchange rates Credibility of macro/inflation/currency Quality of institutions Rules Currency fluctuations and dollarization There is a direct mechanical effect But it can be rebalanced Local money growth also important No evidence of destabilizing short-run response (Econometric model) Fear of floating a mistake Mechanical effect helps explain away 2002-3 downturn but not change of trend Exchange rate movements for sample countries Dollarization and perceived risks Not just another portfolio asset unhedged liabilities at systemic level no LOLR Heightened risk of depreciation and suspension Measured in interest spreads Including for “hyphenated dollars” Dollarization shares are positively linked With measures of future depreciation/suspension risk Conclusions High share of FX deposits complicates practice and policy … and increases systemic and bank risk High dollarization is associated with high interest rates spreads …reflecting fears of depreciation suspension. Exchange rate movements confuse trend analysis. …Although underlying dollarization has not declined, there has been a break in trend. …Dollarization is here to stay, but future growth will be slower. Fear of floating is a mistake. …Exchange rate mo