以最小二乘支持向量機進行電離層全電子含量預報之研究a-中興大學.pdfVIP

浠ユ渶灏忎簩涔樻敮鎸佸悜閲忔閫茶闆婚洟灞ゅ叏闆诲瓙鍚噺闋愬牨涔嬬爺绌 A Study of Prediction Ionospheric Total Electron Content by Least Squares Support Vector Machine 楂樻浉灞 1 钁夋璞? Szu-Pyng Kao1 Xin-Hao Ya 2 鎽樿 闆婚洟灞ゅ叏闆诲瓙鍚噺 锛圱otal Electron Content,TEC 锛夎硣鏂欙紝鏄弿杩伴浕闆㈠堡鍨嬫厠鍜岀祼妲嬮噸 瑕佺殑鍙冩暩锛屽彲璁撴垜鍊戝付鍏ラ浕闆㈠堡寤堕伈鍏紡涓嵅寰楅浕闆㈠堡寤堕伈閲忥紝鍥犳鏈爺绌跺笇鏈涙彁鍓嶉爯 鍫 TEC 锛屼互鍗虫檪鏀规闆婚洟灞ゅ欢閬诧紝鏈爺绌朵娇鐢ㄦ渶灏忎簩涔樻敮鎸佸悜閲忔锛 LSSVM 锛夐爯鍫遍浕 闆㈠堡鐨凾EC 锛屼甫灏嶅叾鎴愭灉閫茶姣旇純鍒嗘瀽銆 浠?011 骞村彴鐏ｇ偤瀵﹂绡勫湇锛屼互LSSVM閫ｇ簩閫茶 360 澶╅爯娓紝鑸嘔GS 鎻愬墠涓€澶╅爯 鍫辫硣鏂欑浉姣旓紝骞冲潎瑾ゅ樊鎻愬崌 0.73TECu 锛屾簴纰哄害鍦 95%浠ヤ笂澶?4 澶╋紝鏈爺绌堕爯娓簿搴︽湁 鎵€鎻愬崌銆 闂滈嵉瀛楋細闆婚洟灞ゃ€佸叏闆诲瓙鍚噺銆侀爯娓€佹渶灏忎簩涔樻敮鎸佸悜閲忔 Abstract The information of Total Electron Content describes the structure and patterns of the ionospheric. By the research function can calculate ionosphere delay measure. Therefore, in my research both use the least squares support vector machine comparative analysis to forecast TEC, hope in advance and real-time correction of ionospheric delay. Experimental range is 2011 of Taiwan. Use LSSVM continuous 360 days forecast, compared to one day in advance with the IGS forecast data, the average error enhance 0.73TECu and accuracy above 95% for more than 44 days. Keyword 锛歩onospheric 銆乀EC 銆乸rediction 銆丩SSVM 1 鍦嬬珛涓垐澶у鍦熸湪宸ョ▼瀛哥郴娓噺璩囪▕绲 鍓暀鎺 2 鍦嬬珛涓垐澶у鍦熸湪宸ョ▼瀛哥郴娓噺璩囪▕绲 纰╁＋鐢 涓€銆 鍕曟鑸囩洰鐨 闆婚洟灞 TEC (鍏ㄩ浕瀛愬惈閲忚硣鏂欙紝鏄弿杩伴浕闆㈠堡鍨嬫厠鍜岀祼妲嬮噸瑕佺殑鍙冩暩锛屽彲璁撴垜) 鍊戝付鍏ラ浕闆㈠堡寤堕伈鍏紡涓嵅寰楅浕闆㈠堡寤堕伈閲忥紝鍥犳鏈爺绌跺笇鏈涙彁鍓嶉爯鍫 TEC 锛岃畵 鍠粸瀹氫綅鑳藉鍗虫檪鏀规闆婚洟灞ゅ欢閬诧紝鑰屼笉闇€鍐嶉€茶椤嶅鐨勬敼姝ｏ紝娓涘皯浜哄姏鐗╁姏鐨勬姇 鍏ャ€ 鐩墠锛屽湅闅涗笂灏嶉浕闆㈠堡 TEC鍊奸€茶闋愬牨涓昏鏈夊叐鍊嬫柟娉曪紝涓€鏄埄鐢ㄧ従鏈夐浕闆㈠堡 妯″瀷閫茶闋愬牨锛岀従鏈夌殑闆婚洟灞ら爯鍫变箣妯″瀷涓昏鏈 Bent 妯″瀷銆両RI 妯″瀷銆並lobuchar 妯″瀷銆佷綆