孙立坚货币供给讲义要点.ppt

通胀目标制 通胀目标制 通胀目标制 货币政策战略小结 利率操作指标和总量操作指标不可兼得 利率操作指标和总量操作指标不可兼得 泰勒规则 根据泰勒分析，既然利率直接影响消费和投资，那么中央银行就应该选择利率而不是货币增长率. 通胀缺口和产出缺口 稳定实际产出(失业率)是央行一个重要的关注点 产出(失业率)缺口是菲利普斯曲线所描述的未来通胀的一个指标 NAIRU 不存在通胀变化趋势时的失业率水平。 当失业率高于NAIRU，而产出低于潜在水平时，通胀率就会下行；但是如果失业率低于NAIRU，而产出高于前在水平，通胀率就会上升。 美国格林斯潘时期，实际联邦基金利率与泰勒规则利率最密切相关 泰勒规则 a值越大, 中央银行就越会用提高利率来抑制通胀。 b值越大, 中央银行就越愿意偏离通胀目标值来使得失业率接近自然失业率水平上。. 总而言之，系数反映了中央银行对通胀和失业问题的相对关注程度。 泰勒规则 泰勒规则提供了一种重新考虑货币政策的方法: 一旦中央银行选择了目标通胀率, 它就应该通过调整名义利率来实现它. 这个规则很好的描述了美联储在过去10-20年的表现状况。 泰勒规则、NAIRU和菲利普斯曲线 * * * * In the first bullet point, “incompetent” is not meant to be an insult. Economics is an inexact science at best. It’s quite possible that people appear highly qualified when they’re appointed to the Fed but run into the limits of their knowledge as the future unfolds. For example, I’m sure President Bush thought Michael Brown was highly qualified when he appointed “Brownie” in March 2003 to head the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It turned out that was not quite the case when an actual emergency (Hurricane Katrina) occurred and required federal management and coordination of assistance. Here are a couple more examples of time-inconsistent policy (which I found in Mankiw’s intermediate macro textbook): The government announces that it will never negotiate with terrorists over the release of hostages to give would-be hostage-takers the expectation that holding hostages would give them no power. But once hostages are taken, government is tempted to offer some concession to get the hostages released. The government announces it will grant a temporary monopoly to firms that invent new drugs to encourage RD. But once a new drug is invented, the government may be tempted to renege in order to make the drug more affordable to those that need it to survive. * 反通货膨胀的货币政策 紧缩性货币政策使经济从A 点移到B点 随着时间的推移， 预期通货膨胀下降，菲利普斯曲线向下移动 在长期中，经济回到 C点：自然失业率， 较低的通货膨胀率 失业率 通货膨胀率 LRPC PC1 自然失业率 A PC2 C B 降低通货膨胀的代价 反通货膨胀要忍受一段时间的高失业与低产量 牺牲率：在通货膨胀减少一个百分点的过程中每年产量损失