Ford战略分析报告－摩根斯坦利要点.ppt

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 34 1 * * Suppliers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003 Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Dealers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003 Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Expectations: Year Ago vs. Today Source: Morgan Stanley Research Stephen.Girsky@MorganS 人有了知识，就会具备各种分析能力， 明辨是非的能力。 所以我们要勤恳读书，广泛阅读， 古人说“书中自有黄金屋。 ”通过阅读科技书籍，我们能丰富知识， 培养逻辑思维能力； 通过阅读文学作品，我们能提高文学鉴赏水平， 培养文学情趣； 通过阅读报刊，我们能增长见识，扩大自己的知识面。 有许多书籍还能培养我们的道德情操， 给我们巨大的精神力量， 鼓舞我们前进。 谢谢！ 1 6 6 3 5 6 6 2 6 2 2 18 22 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 2 2 2 20 US Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - Present Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Japanese Yen vs. U.S. Dollar Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03 Source: Company Data Morgan Stanley Research Note: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little Source: Morgan Stanley Research Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research *Morgan Stanley Estimates Excluding Pension OPEB Expense for the Big Three Porsche Nissan BMW Honda Toyota Hyundai GM Peugeot Kia VW DCX Renault Ford Fiat 16.4% 10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2% Higher Rates Could be a Negative Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings Extended terms suggest longer replacement rates. Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle. Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. Now Source: FRB Morgan Stanley Research GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs Source: FRB Morgan Stanley Research Big 3 Opportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality Source: JD Power, CNW Morgan Stanley Research The Big Three: Positives Negatives Each Company Faces Unique Challenges: GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs. Ford’s share is likely to remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cuttin