强增温区及其形态变化对台风转向的指示作用.pdfVIP

16 4 V o.l 16, No. 4 2007 8 JOURNA L OF NATURAL D ISA STER S A ug. , 2007 : 2007) 1, 2 2 张行才 , 王建新 1. , 32 1004; 2. , 32 1000 ) : N CEP) , , : , , ) : ; ; ; : P444 : A Indicative action of abnorm a l area of tem perature increase and its pattern change on typhoon swerve 1, 2 2 ZHAN G X ingca i , WANG J ianx in 1. Inst itute of S atellite and R em ote Sens ing, Zh ejiang N orm al U n ivers ity, Jinhua 32 1004, C h ina; 2. Jinhua W eather Bu reau, Jinhua 32 1000, Ch ina) Abs tract: NCEP reana lysis data w ere u sed in th is paper to d iagnose the direction shift of typhoon that landfalled on the East Ch ina or m oved off- shore in recent years as the examp les. T he au thors used the tem perature inform at ion o f the N CEP data to analyze the re lationsh ip betw een the abnorm al tem perature increase around the typhoon center and the direction shift o f the typhoon in fu ture. T he result show s that the abnorm al tem perature increase near the cen ter of typhoon at h igh and m iddle layers can w ell indicate the typhoonsm ovem ent tendency in future, especia lly pred ict the sudden chang o f the typhoons d irect ion. T he stronger temperature increase area and the orientation of ridge ax is) line ind icate the movem ent d irection of the typhoon in future. T hu s a new w ay of predict